To celebrate the 50th anniversary of the PTC, PMD in collaboration with SEGMITE, Society of Economic Geologists and Mineral Technologists, and PSF, Pakistan Science Foundation, organized a seminar titled “Tropical Cyclone and Tsunami Threats to Pakistan's Coast and our Preparedness” on 13 Dec 2023 at Pearl Continental hotel, Karachi. Dr. Sarfaraz, Chief Met, Karachi presented the welcome address and briefed the audience on purpose and importance of the seminar. DG PDMA, Sindh, Syed Salman Shah, chief guest appreciating the seminar organizers effort said that holding of such activity to sensitize stakeholders is very timely. He briefed about his department’s preparation from disaster management to disaster risk management and disaster risk reduction approach. DG-PMD in his speech briefed the audience about PTC’s background, its activities and collaboration amongst the member countries and contribution in TC forecasting & early warning. He emphasized that in pursuit of the WMO’s EarlyWarning4All initiative, PMD, NDMA/PDMAs and all stakeholders should work hard to expand the existing early warning system (EWS) to the last-mile recipient so that the potential hydromet-induced damages are minimized. Prof. Dr. Viqar Hussain, the SEGMITE convener in his address highlighted the various activities SEGMITE is carrying out at national level across Pakistan to promote scientific and research culture. Mr. Kanwar Waseem, the provincial secretary, Pakistan Red Crescent Society, Sindh, in his address emphasized that a hydromet advisory/early warning would become a success story when it is timely disseminated to the last-mile recipient of the vulnerable community and put into action to avoid or minimize the losses. The presenters from PMD, Academia and Civil Society delivered the presentations on Tropical Cyclone, Tsunami, sea-level rise, sea water intrusion, marine pollution and other potential coastal hazards for Pakistan coast. The learned speakers highlighted that climate change-induced increase in TC intensity and Tsunami vulnerability owing to Makran Subduction Zone warrant an immediate, foolproof and robust preparedness & response system to minimize the potential damages. Representatives from Pakistan Fisher Folk Forum (PFFF), Pakistan Navy, Balochistan Coastal Development Authority, Pakistan Red Crescent Society and other stakeholders actively participated in panel discussion forum and group exercise and presented their recommendations to make a robust preparedness & response mechanism for minimizing the potential damages. At the end, Mr. Zubair Ahmed Siddiqui, Director-PMD presented the vote of thanks.

Met Office informed that a shallow westerly wave is affecting western parts of the country and likely to grip upper parts on 08th November, 2023 (evening/night) and persist in northern areas till 10th afternoon. Under the influence of this weather system:

• Light to moderate rain-wind/thunderstorm is also expected in Quetta, Kharan, Harnai, Chaman, Ziarat, Qilla Abdullah, Qillah Saif Ullah, Loralai, Pishin, Zhob, Musa Khel, Sibbi, Mastung, Kalat, Noshki and Chaghi on 06th (evening/night) & 07th November. While light rain-thunderstorm is also expected in Dera Ismail Khan, Dera Ghazi khan, Layyah, Bhakkar, Sargodha, Mianwali, Khushab, Islamabad and Pothohar region on 07th (evening/night).
• Light to moderate rain-wind/thunderstorm with hailstorm (at isolated places) is also expected in Chitral, Dir, Swat, Shangla, Buner, Kohistan, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Swabi, Mardan, Nowshera, Peshawar, Kohat, Kurram, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Waziristan, Bhakkar, Mianwali, Sargodha, Khushab, Murree, Galliyat, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Attock, Chakwal, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Gujranwala, Gujrat, Sialkot, Narowal, Lahore, Faisalabad, Jhang, Sheikhupura and Hafizabad on 08th (evening/night) & 09th November.
• Rain-wind/thunderstorm (with snowfall over the high mountains) is expected in Kashmir, (Neelum valley, Muzaffarabad, Poonch, Hattian, Bagh, Haveli, Sudhanoti, Kotli, Bhimber, Mirpur), Gilgit Baltistan (Diamir, Astore, Ghizer, Skardu, Hunza, Gilgit, Ghanche, Shigar) from 08th (evening/night) to 10th Novermber (afternoon).
• Fog/smog is likely to develop (patches) in plains of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in coming days especially late night and early morning hours.

Impacts and Advises:

• Day temperatures are likely to drop 02 to 03 (℃) during the spell.
• Farmers of barani areas are advised to manage their crops activities accordingly.
• Tourists and travelers visiting northern areas are advised to remain cautious during the period.

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) over West-central Arabian Sea crossed the Yemen coast south of Al Ghaydah late night/early morning, weakened into a Cyclonic Storm (CS) and now located over eastern Yemen near Lat. 16.2 °N & 51.5 °E. The system is likely to track further west-northwestward and weaken gradually into a Depression later today.

This is the last alert in this regard.

An Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) “TEJ” over Southwest Arabian Sea tracked further northwestward during last 12 hours, weakened into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) and now located around Latitude 15.5 °N & Longitude 52.1 °E at a distance of about 70km south of Al Ghaydah (Yemen), 270km southwest of Salalah (Oman) and 1500km southwest of Gwadar (Pakistan). Maximum sustained surface winds are 130-140 Km/h gusting 160 Km/h, sea conditions being high/very high & maximum wave height is 30 feet around the system canter. The VSCS “Tej” is likely to keep moving in northwest direction and cross Yemen coast near Al Ghaydah during next few hours with packing winds of 120-130 Km/h gusting 140 Km/h.

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) “TEJ” over Southwest Arabian Sea moved further northwestward during last 12 hours, intensified further into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) and now lies cantered around Latitude 13.6 °N & Longitude 54.0 °E at a distance of about 380km south of Salalah (Oman), 290km southeast of Al Ghaydah (Yemen) 1550km southwest of Gwadar. Maximum sustained surface winds are 170-190 Km/h gusting 200 Km/h, sea conditions being phenomenal & maximum wave height is 45 feet around the system center. Due to persistent favorable environmental conditions (warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear and strong upper-level outflow), the system would maintain its current intensity by tomorrow afternoon, keep tracking in northwest direction and cross Yemen coast near Al Ghaydah by 23 Oct midnight as an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) with packing winds of 130-150 km/h. No impact on any of Pakistan coastal area from this system.

The Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) “TEJ” over Southwest Arabian Sea moved further northwestward during last 12 hours, intensified rapidly into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) and now lies cent red around Latitude 12.5 °N & Longitude 55.2 °E at a distance of about 530km south-southeast of Salalah (Oman), 1600km southwest of Gwadar and 1850km southwest of Karachi. Maximum sustained surface winds are 150-160 Km/h gusting 170 Km/h, sea conditions being phenomenal & maximum wave height is 35 feet around the system center. Due to persistent favorable environmental conditions (warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear and strong upper-level outflow), the system would intensify further into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) during coming hours and keep moving in northwest direction towards Yemen-Oman coast.