Date: June 17, 2019
Time: 1400PST

Weather Outlook for Summer Monsoon (JAS) 2019

 Most of the global models are indicating weak El-Nino conditions over Pacific Ocean and positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Keeping in view, global and regional atmospheric circulations; following is the monsoon weather outlook for the year 2019.

Ø  Rainfall over the country as a whole for monsoon, 2019 (July-Sep) is likely to remain Near Normal.
Ø 
Normal to above normal rainfall is expected in upper half of Pakistan due to strong incursion of monsoon currents and their interaction with westerly weather system. Extreme weather event is also expected during the period and may cause flooding in the rivers and its adjoining tributaries.
Ø 
Slight to moderate, below normal rainfall is expected in the provinces of Sindh and Balochistan.
Ø 
Average temperature is likely to remain 2-3 C above normal in the plain areas of the country

Note:

The outlook is based upon recent data. Keeping in view the changing behaviour of different Meteorological parameters, the outlook will be updated on monthly basis i.e. by the first week of each month.

 (Spokesperson)

 


Date: May 09, 2019
Time: 1500PST

Weather outlook for Pakistan: May 2019

Normal Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and positive El Nino are forecasted to persist throughout the month. While North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is swinging along the neutral values during the forecast period. Based upon the regional and global weather conditions as stated above, weather outlook for the May 2019 is as follows:

  • Normal or slightly above normal rainfall is expected in the country during the current month of May.

  • The average temperature is likely to remain normal throughout the country during the month. However, there may be above normal temperature in Southern parts of the country.

  • Heat wave conditions are likely to develop in plain areas of the country during last two weeks (2nd fortnight) of this month.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Date: April 09, 2019
Time: 1100PST

Weather outlook for Pakistan: April 2019

El Nino & Southern Oscillations (ENSO) is in positive phase and is expected to continue in the spring season. Based on prevailing atmospheric conditions climate outlook of different models suggest that:

  • Mainly normal rainfall expected in most parts of the country with slightly above normal in some area of upper KP, Balochistan and GB during the current month.

  • One or two windstorms associated with rainfall are also likely to occur at isolated places of KP and Upper Punjab during the current month.

  • Air temperature is expected to remain 1℃ above normal in most of the plains during April 2019.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Date: March 08, 2019
Time: 1430PST

Weather outlook for Pakistan: March 2019

Equatorial sea surface temperatures are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean and shows decreasing trend in coming months. North Atlantic oscillation is also in positive phase whereas Indian ocean Dipole in neutral phase. Based on regional and global forcing factors following would be the main features of the weather during the month:

  • Near normal rainfall is expected over the country with slightly above normal over northern half of the country.

  • Possibility of hailstorm/thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with weather system.

  • Surface temperature will gradually increase during March and are expected to remain 1-2 degree above normal over plain areas of the country. However normal temperatures are expected over mountainous region of the country.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Date: February 6, 2019
Time: 0900PST

Weather Outlook for Pakistan: February 2019

The global circulations indicate the effectiveness of westerly disturbances will remain as per normal frequency in the South Asian region including Pakistan, during the month. The weather outlook produced, based on the global Climate Models for February 2019 indicates that Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will persist along its neutral position. While, El Nino, will remain in positive phase. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be swinging along the neutral value during February 2019. Based upon the regional and global forcing factors, following would be the main features of weather during the month;

  • Above normal rainfall is expected throughout the country. However the mountainous areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, AJ&K and Gilgit Baltistan (GB) may receive above normal snowfall during the period.

  • Day and night time temperatures will gradually increase in February. The average nights Temperatures over the country are likely to be slightly above normal during the month.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Date: January 4, 2019
Time: 1500PST

Weather Outlook for Pakistan: January 2019

The global climate forcing indicate that El-Nino (ENSO) conditions are likely to strengthen during the month of January-2018. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will persist in its neutral phase. Based on the statistical downscaling of Global Climate Models, the weather outlook produced for the month of January 2019 is as follows;

  • Overall normal rainfall is likely to occur in the country, whereas northern parts of the country, including upper KP, Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir may get slightly above normal rainfall / snowfall.

  • Southern Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan is expected to receive slightly below normal rainfall.

  • Due to least temperature, foggy weather condition are expected in the plains of central and lower Punjab, Peshawar & Hazara Division of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Date: January 4, 2019
Time: 1500PST

Weather Outlook for Pakistan: January to March 2019

The prevailing global climate and weather conditions indicate that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is in neutral phase, whereas El-Nino (ENSO) conditions are likely to strengthen during the period January to March, 2019. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain neutral. The weather outlook based on statistical downscaling of Global Climate Models for the months of January to March 2019 is expected as follows;

  • The country as a whole is expected to receive near normal rainfall during the period.

  • Slightly above normal precipitation is expected in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Northern Punjab, Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir. The mountainous areas of upper KP, GB and AJ&K is likely to receive snowfall during the period.

  • Normal rainfall is likely to occur in southern Punjab, Balochistan and Sindh.

  • The average temperatures are expected to remain near normal in most parts of the country.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson