Date: January 4, 2019
Time: 1500PST

Weather Outlook for Pakistan, January 2019

The global climate forcing indicate that El-Nino (ENSO) conditions are likely to strengthen during the month of January-2018. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will persist in its neutral phase. Based on the statistical downscaling of Global Climate Models, the weather outlook produced for the month of January 2019 is as follows;

• Overall normal rainfall is likely to occur in the country, whereas northern parts of the country, including upper KP, Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Jammu & Kashmir may get slightly above normal rainfall / snowfall.

• Southern Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan is expected to receive slightly below normal rainfall.

• Due to least temperature, foggy weather condition are expected in the plains of central and lower Punjab, Peshawar & Hazara Division of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson

Date: November 29, 2018
Time: 1700PST

Weather Outlook for Pakistan, December 2018

The prevailing global climate forcing, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are likely to stay in positive phase, whereas North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is expected to remain negative during the month. Westerlies are moving on their normal track. Weather outlook for December 2018, has been prepared based upon regional and global climatic conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics and analysis of the statistically downscaled General Circulation Models. Following are the main features of weather in December 2018:

• Normal to slightly above normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country. One spell of rainfall over upper half is expected during first half of the month. Whereas two to three spells of rainfall with light to moderate intensity are likely to occur all over the country during the second half of December, 2018. However, periodical episode of snowfall may occur on higher altitudes of Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral and AJK.

• The fall in temperatures and intrusion of cold waves may cause foggy conditions in the plain areas of Punjab and upper Sindh. Smog with various intensity may be formed occasionally in urban areas of central Punjab and Sind.

• Droughts conditions of moderate to severe intensity will continue to prevail over southern parts of Sindh and Balochistan and may further intensify during the month of December, 2018. The disaster risk management authorities are requested to take necessary actions/ measures for drought mitigation.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month..

Spokesperson

Date: November 06, 2018
Time: 1600PST

Weather Outlook for Pakistan, November 2018

The global and regional meteorological indicators, such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are likely to oscillate around its neutral position. EI Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to remain in positive phase. Based upon these climate conditions and statistically downscaled GCM’s, the salient features of weather for November 2018 are expected as follows:

• The analysis of output from the models suggests that there is probability of 60% to 70% of above normal rainfall over northern parts of the country and nearly normal rainfall over southern parts of the country. There is also continuation of above normal temperature over central and southern parts of the country.

• Two or three spells of light to moderate rainfall with snow over the hills is also expected in the northern half of the country.

• Fog/Smog is likely to prevail in the plain areas of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and upper Sindh.

• Drought prevailing conditions are likely to continue/intensify in Sindh and southwest of Balochistan.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson