Dated: September 06, 2017

Monthly Outlook for September 2017

ENSO and IOD neutral are prevailing in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively. Neutral phase of IOD phenomenon is expected to prevail in the monsoon season, however, ENSO is expected to remain in negative phase during coming autumn/early winter season.

Outlook for the month of September, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics. Monsoon is expected to remain in weaker phase during the month in South Asia including Pakistan. Following are the main features of weather in September, 2017:

  1. Near normal rainfall is expected in the country during the month.

  2. Three to four spells of rainfall embedded with isolated extreme events are expected in upper Punjab, KP, AJK and GB. While one to two spells of light to moderate intensity are predicted in Sindh and Balochistan provinces. These extreme events may generate floods.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Dated: August 01, 2017

Monthly Outlook for August 2017

ENSO and IOD neutral are prevailing in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively. Neutral phase of both phenomena is expected to prevail in the monsoon season.

 

Outlook for the month of August, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics. Monsoon is going to enter in weaker phase after mid-August in South Asia including Pakistan. Following are the main features of weather in August, 2017:

 

1. Near normal rainfall in northern half and below normal in southern half of the country is expected during the month.

2. Three to four spells of rainfall embedded with isolated extreme events are expected in upper Punjab, KP, AJK and GB. While one to two spells of light to moderate intensity are predicted in Sindh and Balochistan provinces.

 
Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


 

Dated: July 06, 2017

Monthly Outlook for July 2017

ENSO and IOD neutral are prevailing in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively. Neutral phase of both phenomena will continue to prevail in the monsoon season. These forcing play an important role in modification of the seasonal weather in the region.

Outlook for the month of July, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics. Following are the main features of weather in July, 2017:

  • Near normal rainfall is expected during the month of July, 2017.

  • Three to four spells of monsoon rainfall with thunderstorm and isolated heavy falls are predicted in Punjab, KP, AJK and GB, while, two spells are expected in southern parts ( Southeast Sindh and Eastern Balochistan) of the county during the current month.

  • Due to warming and excess moisture, weather in plain areas of the country is likely to remain humid/sultry.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

 

Spokesperson


Dated: June 14, 2017

 

Outlook for Summer Monsoon (JAS) 2017

   Large uncertainties prevail in the evolution of ENSO and IOD, however, most of the models are in consensus of neutral phase of phenomena during the season. Consequent upon prevailing ocean and atmospheric conditions, summer monsoon rainfall is expected to be normal in the first half and below normal in the second half of the season, in Pakistan. Based on statistical and dynamical downscaling of global circulation models, salient features of outlook for the season (July to September) 2017 are as under;

·             Area weighted rainfall during monsoon season over Pakistan is expected to fall short of long term average. However, rainfall will be highly variable over temporal and spatial scale.

·         During July, monsoon rainfall may range in normal limits but less than normal rainfall is likely in August and September.

·            Less frequent rains in southern half of the country may trigger drought like conditions.

·           There is a high probability of localized rain spells which may generate flash flooding in mountainous and sub-mountainous regions.

·           Due to erratic behavior of summer monsoon, extreme precipitation events may occur at isolated places in the country, which can result into floods.

·             Localized events of rainfall coupled with rapid melting in the glaciated regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral may trigger GLOF events. 

Note: The outlook is based upon recent data. Keeping in view the changing behavior of different Meteorological parameters, the outlook will be updated on monthly basis i.e. at the first week of each month.

 

                                                                                                                                                                --Sd--

                                                                                                                                                                 Spokesperson


Dated: June 08, 2017

 

Monthly Outlook for June 2017

Large uncertainty prevails in the global models about evolution of El Niño during monsoon season 2017. Positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to dominate throughout the summer season. These forcing play an important role in modification of the seasonal weather in the region.

Outlook for the month of June 2017, has been prepared based upon regional and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics. Following are the highlights of weather in June 2017:

  • Northern half of the country is expected to receive more precipitation than the southern half of the country.

  • Three-four spells of thunderstorm-rain and isolated hailstorms associated with windstorm are predicted in Upper Punjab, AJK, KP and adjoining areas of Gilgit-Baltistan. Hot and dry conditions, with chances of dust/thunderstorms, will prevail in the southern half of the country.

  • Due to intense heating, temperatures in the southern half of the country are likely to remain slightly above normal.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Dated: May 04, 2017

 

Monthly Outlook for May 2017

El Niño, one of the global climate drivers, is developing and it is predicted to be in peak phase in the autumn 2017, while Indian Ocean Dipole is forecasted to swing within normal limits throughout the summer season. These forcings play important role in modification of the seasonal weather in the region.

Outlook for the months of May 2017, has been prepared based upon regional and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics. Following are the highlights of weather in the season;

  • Northern half of the country is expected to receive slightly above normal precipitation. 3–4 spells of thunderstorm-rain and isolated hailstorms associated with windstorm are predicted in Upper Punjab, AJK, KP and adjoining areas of Gilgit-Baltistan. Hot and dry conditions, with chances of dust/thunderstorms, will prevail in the southern half of the country.
  • Temperatures in the southern half of the country are likely to remain slightly above normal.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month

Spokesperson


Dated: April 03, 2017

Outlook for the month of April 2017 

Global Climate Indicators such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain neutral in April 2017, however, the El Nino & Southern Oscillations (ENSO) is in developing phase. Based on prevailing atmospheric conditions climate outlook of different models suggest that;

  • Three to four weather systems are likely to pass across the country, resulting in Normal to slightly above normal rainfall over upper KP, GB, AJK, adjoining Northern parts of Punjab, and hot & Dry weather is expected in rest of the country.

  • Thunder/hailstorms accompanied with gusty winds are also likely to occur at isolated places in the country.

  • Air temperature is expected to remain 1 - 2oC above normal in April 2017.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Dated: March 01, 2017

Outlook for the month of March 2017

 

Global climate indicators such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), El Nino & Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain neutral in March 2017. Based on prevailing atmospheric conditions climate outlook of different models suggest that;

·        Three to four weather systems are likely to pass across the country, resulting in slightly above normal rainfall over upper KP, GB, AJK, Northern parts of Punjab and normal rainfall in rest of the country.

·        Snowfall is also expected over high mountains in March 2017.

·        Thunder/hailstorms accompanied with gusty winds are also likely to occur at isolated places in the country.

·        Air temperature is expected to remain slightly above normal in March 2017.

·        Initial estimates indicate that precipitation is likely to remain normal in the month of April.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

 

Spokesperson


 

Dated: February 3, 2017

Outlook for the month of February 2017

Global climate indicators such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), El Nino & Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain neutral in February 2017. The conditions are in favour of more than normal February precipitation. Climate outlook of different models suggest that;

  • §    Two to three weather systems are likely to pass across the country, resulting in slightly above normal rain/snowfall in February 2017.

    §    In February, more than normal snowfall is expected in mountainous areas of Upper KP, GB and Kashmir.

    §    Fog intensity is likely to reduce gradually in plain areas of KP, Punjab and upper Sindh.

    §    Precipitation is likely to remain normal in the month of March. However, rainfall will be more than snowfall.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

 

 

Spokesman


 

Dated: January 4, 2017

Outlook for the month of January 2017

Near normal rain and snowfall predicted during January 2017

Neutral ENSO and IOD conditions are prevailing in Pacific and Indian Oceans, respectively. Global climatic conditions and output of different forecasting models suggest that;

  • Two to three weather systems are likely to pass across the upper parts of Pakistan resulting in near normal rain/snowfall in January 2017.

  • Fog with variable intensity is likely to prevail in Punjab, Sindh and plain areas of KP during January.

  • Situation may further improve as normal rainfall and slightly above normal snowfall is expected during the month of February.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent data. Keeping in view, the changing dynamics of the climate system, the outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

 

Spokesman


Dated: December 5, 2016

Outlook for December- January 2016-2017

Less than long term average rain and snow expected during December January

Severe El-Nino of 2015-16, although settled to normal in early summer yet its influence has raised 2016 as the warmest year. Currently border-line La Nina conditions prevail in the Pacific which is the cooling phase of ocean. Indian Ocean dipole is also in neutral state.

Global climatic conditions and output different forecasting models suggest that the effectiveness of the western disturbances will be weaker in December-January for the South Asian Region including Pakistan. Therefore;

  • A few westerly waves will reach to central parts of Pakistan resulting in below normal rainfall/snowfall during December 2016.

  • Situations are likely to relatively improve in January 2017 and near normal rainfall/snowfall are expected.

  • Fog/smog with variable intensity is likely to prevail in Punjab and KP during December and January.

  • Day temperature is likely to remain slightly higher than normal during the period.

  • Due to less than normal expected precipitation, surface and ground water resources may experience further depletion. Water management authorities and users may observe extreme care.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent data. Keeping in view, the changing dynamics of the climate system, the outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

 

Spokesman

 


Dated: October 27, 2016

Outlook for month of November and December, 2016

Analysis of global and regional atmospheric and oceanic circulation depicts that high pressure anomaly over Central Asia will persist which is likely to push the western disturbances (rain bearing systems) to pass across north of Pakistan. Other external forcings such as El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are predicted to persist in their neutral phase during the months of November and December this year. The aggregate impact of climate forcings on Pakistan weather pattern will be negative.

  • Fewer western disturbances will reach Pakistan geographic limits effectively. Therefore, less than average precipitation is expected. It will result in cooler nights and warmer days.

  • Less frequent snowfall events are expected over the mountainous areas of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK) and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP).

  • Fog events in plain areas of Punjab and KP are expected to occur during November/December 2016.

In view of expected below normal precipitation in November & December which coincides with sowing season of Rabi crops, water shortage is most likely. Therefore, Indus River System Authority (IRSA) and irrigation departments are suggested for judicious use of water.

  

 

 

Note: The outlook is based upon recent data. Keeping in view, the changing dynamics of climate system, the outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

 

Spokesman

 


 

Dated: July. 04, 2016
Time: 1100 PST

 

Monthly update for Summer Monsoon (JAS) 2016

Prevailing atmospheric and ocean conditions confirm the above normal rainfalls in summer monsoon (JAS) 2016. Therefore, there is no change in the seasonal outlook issued in June 2016.

 

Spokesman 


Dated: June. 09, 2016
Time: 1100 PST

 

 

Outlook for Summer Monsoon (JAS) 2016

 The El Niño phenomenon has weakened and La Niña is favored to develop during the summer 2016.Prevailing oceanic and atmospheric conditions are giving indications of good summer monsoon rainfall in the country. Based on statistical and dynamical downscaling of global circulation models, outlook for the season is prepared at 80% confidence level for planning purposes. The outlook for the season (July-September) 2016 is as under;

1.     Summer monsoon rainfall is likely to be 10-20% above normal over the country, averaged for three months.

2.     More than average rainfall is expected over Punjab, KP, Sindh, AJK and Northeast Balochistan.

3.     Some extreme rainfall events are likely to occur in the catchment areas of major rivers and other parts of the country which may cause Floods.

4.     There is a high probability of heavy downpour which may generate Flash Flooding along  Suleman Range.

5.     Some heavy downpour events may produce urban flooding in big cities.

6.     Some strong incursions of monsoon currents, coupled with high temperature, may trigger Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF), Landslides and Flash Floods in Upper KP and GB.

The outlook is based upon recent data. Keeping in view the changing behavior of different Meteorological parameters, the outlook will be updated on monthly basis i. e. at the first week of each month.

 

DG S

 

 

 

 


Dated: Mar. 04, 2016
Time: 1500 PST

 

Seasonal Outlook for Spring and early Summer 2016

Prevailing oceanic, atmospheric and surface climatic conditions suggest that uncertainties in Pakistan’s weather pattern will persist towards the early summer till the El Niño comes to neutral phase in May – June 2016.

Outlook for the next three months has been prepared based upon regional and global weather condition incorporating the climate system dynamics. Following are the highlights of weather in spring and early summer;

  • March and April are expected to be wetter than normal. Frequent spells of rainfall and isolated hailstorms associated with windstorm may hamper the harvesting and threshing of wheat and sowing of cotton.

  • May and first half of June are likely to remain drier and hotter than normal. That would increase the probability of occurrence of heatwaves over plains and coastal belt of the country.

  • Heatwave conditions in Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral may accelerate glacier melting and trigger GLOF events in the coming summer season.

  • Due to intense heating, monsoon onset is expected to be early during second half of June 2016.

  • El Niño is declining and global climate models predict it to run in the neutral phase during monsoon season.

                                          

DG S

 

 

 

 


Dated: Mar. 01, 2016
Time: 1600 PST

Seasonal Outlook for Mar-May 2016

A strong EI Nino is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and its transition to neutral phase during early summer 2016.

On the basis of prevailing global atmospheric and oceanic circulation, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) predicts slightly (20-25%) above normal precipitation in the northern half of the country, including northeast Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), central and north Punjab, Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). Normal rainfalls are likely over Sindh and southern Balochistan.

The Forecast also indicates that the positive temperature anomalies will prevail over the country, during the season from March-May 2016.

Weather outlook for March 2016:   

  • Wetter than normal producing 3-spells of light to moderate precipitations with gusty winds are expected at scattered places all over the country.

  • One or two snowfall over high mountains of Malakand, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir are also expected.

  • Temperature are likely to remain slightly above normal during the month. Due to high temperature contrast the wet spells may be accompanied isolated Hailstorm in KP and Potohar region.

Monthly weather update for April 2016 will be issued at the end of March 2016.                                          

DG S

 

 

 

 


Dated: Jan. 29, 2016
Time: 1600 PST

Weather Outlook for Feb-Apr 2016

On the basis of prevailing global atmospheric and ocean conditions, near normal rainfall is predicted all over the country during the season (February-April). However, more than 20% above normal snowfall is likely over the hills of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), upper Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Kashmir and northeast Balochistan.

Weather Outlook for February 2016:

  • Two wet spells of moderate precipitation are expected at scattered places of KP and Upper Punjab in the first fortnight, and two spells are likely in the second fortnight of the month.
  • Dry weather conditions are likely to prevail in most parts of southern Punjab, Sindh and adjoining Baluchistan during the month.

Monthly weather update for March 2016 will be issued at the end of February 2016.

 

DG S


Dated: Jan. 01, 2016
Time: 1100 PST

Weather Outlook for Winter 2015-16

On the basis of prevailing global atmospheric and ocean conditions, near normal rainfall is predicted all over the country during the coming winter season. However, more than 20% above normal snowfall is likely over the hills of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), upper Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Kashmir.

Weather Outlook for January 2016:

  •  Two to three wet spells of light to moderate precipitation are expected at scattered places of KP, Upper Punjab, North Balochistan, GB and Kashmir during the month.

  •  Three spells of snowfall are predicted over the hills of Upper KP, GB ,Kashmir and two spells of snowfall over the hills of North Balochistan during the month.

  • Foggy conditions will prevail over plains of Punjab and KP till mid of January.

  • Dry weather conditions are likely to prevail in most parts of Sindh and southern Punjab during the month

 Monthly weather update for February 2016 will be issued at the end of January 2016

 

                  


Dated: December 08, 2015
Time: 1100 PST

Weather Outlook for Winter 2015-16

On the basis of prevailing global atmospheric and ocean conditions, near normal rainfall is predicted all over the country for the coming winter season (December - February). However, more than 20% above normal snowfall is likely over the hills of Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and upper Khyber-Pakhtoonkhwa.

Weather Outlook for December 2015:

·         Dry and cold weather conditions are likely to prevail in most parts of the country during the current month.

·         Two wet spells of light to moderate precipitation are expected at isolated places of KP, Upper Punjab, GB and Kashmir during 2nd and 4th week of December.

·         One wet spell is predicted over north Balochistan during 3rd or 4th week of December.

·         Dense foggy weather conditions, with 3-4 spells, likely to start in plain areas of Punjab, central & lower parts of KP and upper parts of Sindh from 3rd week of December resulting low sunshine and day temperatures.

·         High probability of frost occurrence during clear nights in Punjab and KP from mid of December. 

Monthly weather update for January 2016 will be issued at the end of December 2015.

 

                  





Dated: May 19, 2015

Time: 1100 PST   

 

Preliminary Monsoon 2015 Outlook for Pakistan

Using local, regional and global data sets up to April, a Preliminary Monsoon 2015 Outlook for Pakistan is prepared for June-July-August. Its salient features are given below:

1.     Pre-Monsoon showers are expected during second fortnight of June and monsoon will attain its normal rhythm gradually toward the end of July.

2.     In general, 2015 monsoon is expected weaker than normal, therefore less than normal rain is foreseen during June-August.

3.     Monsoon rains will mainly concentrate in AJK, Northeast Punjab and upper KP embedded with extreme precipitation events sometimes exceeding 200mm per day.

4.     Models are indicating some heavy falls in catchment of Kabul River in Pakistan and Afghanistan due to interaction of westerlies and monsoon currents.

5.     Due to less cloudiness and relatively clearer skies in GB, glacier melt rate will be higher. A careful operation of dams will be required to avoid the synchronous peak flows.

6.     In Sindh and Balochistan, rainfall during the period is expected to remain much less than normal which may aggravate the drought conditions in Thar and Cholistan.

Pakistan Summer Monsoon (July-September) will be issued in June using data sets up to May.

 


 

 




2 May, 2014

 

Preliminary Outlook for Monsoon 2014

 

 

Pakistan Summer Monsoon Season spans over July to September. As a routine practice, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issues the Monsoon Outlook around mid June incorporating the dynamics of local, regional and global meteorological parameters up to the end of May each year. However, South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) designated by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has already issued Consensus Statement. Outlook made by this forum and preliminary outlook of PMD are presented below:

 

 

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5)

 

 

The outlook suggests that below normal to normal rainfall is most likely over South Asia as a whole. Below normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of western, Central and Southern parts of the South Asia and some areas in the northeastern-most parts of the region. Normal rainfall is likely over broad areas of northwestern and eastern parts and some island areas in the southern most part of the region. It is noteworthy that no part of the South Asia is likely to receive above normal rainfall.

 

 

Preliminary Monsoon Outlook by PMD

 

The emerging climatic features linked to El-Nino development have fairly large potential to suppress Pakistan Summer Monsoon 2014. According to the preliminary estimates of PMD, the amount of rainfall from July to September may be moderately below normal in Sindh, Balochistan and Southern Punjab while nearly normal rainfall is expected in North Punjab, KP, GB and Kashmir.

 

Note: Monthly outlook of Monsoon Season 2014 will be issued around mid June.

 

 

 

(ARIF MAHMOOD)  

Director General, PMD


 


10 January, 2013

Slightly Above Normal Rain Predicted for Winter 2013

On the basis of prevailing atmospheric circulation and Global weather conditions, prior to winter period, an attempt is made to predict the probable amount of rainfall, which is likely to occur in Pakistan during the winter period (January to March, 2013). Such prediction aims to satisfy the statistical test for 80% success (i.e. to be correct four times out of five in the average). On consideration of Global available data, there are 80% chances that the winter rainfall from January to March 2013, on all Pakistan bases will be slightly above normal (10- 15%).The normal rainfall (area-weighted) for the period January – March for Pakistan is 70.5 mm.

(Naeem Shah)

Director, CDPC, PMD, Karachi


Dated: 13 June, 2012

 

 Pakistan Summer Monsoon Outlook 2012

 1.    Summer monsoon season in Pakistan starts normally in July and persists until the end of September. PMD issues Pakistan’s monsoon outlook every year before the onset of the monsoon season which gives an idea of country-wide total amount of precipitation expected throughout the season. Main objective of this outlook is the management of available water resources.

2.    Last winter and spring were cooler and wetter than normal; consequently yielding heavier snow accumulation over the northern mountains. Snow melt rate is lower than normal due to generally below normal temperatures in Northern Areas and frequent passage of westerlies in May and June. It is envisaged that the snowmelt contribution to riverine flooding will be minimal.

3.    El~Nino is likely to develop in August which has negative impact on Pakistan summer monsoon, in general. Likewise heavier than normal winter snow is a signal of weaker monsoon. Nevertheless, the western disturbance will continue affecting northern half of Pakistan and its interactions with monsoon current may produce heavy downpours in parts of the country at times.

4.    It is noteworthy to mention that the seasonal predictions of the South Asian monsoon 2012 made by different Regional Climate Outlook Fora are contradictory giving slightly above normal to below normal rainfall over the region.

5.    Monsoon Outlook

 Based on analysis of local, regional and global general circulation of atmosphere and incorporating the previous winter and spring behavior, the outlook for forthcoming monsoon season 2012 is as under:

There is a strong likelihood that total amount of precipitation in Pakistan during monsoon season 2012 (July-September) will be +05-15% of the long term average. However, erratic spread of monsoon on temporal and spatial scale is likely to be a prevalent feature; as such the possibility of very heavy localized rainfall, at times resulting in flash flooding, may not be ruled out. Further, such localized rainfall events may cause localized flash flooding over the hill torrents of the Suleman Range and Rod-Kohi in Rajanpur, D. I. Khan and D. G. Khan.”

 Note:  An update will be issued depending upon any shift in global weather parameters. Normal monsoon rainfall (July-September) for Pakistan is 137.5 mm.

 

(ARIF MAHMOOD)

Director General, PMD


 

Dated: 6th January, 2012

 

 Below Normal Rain Predicted for Winter 2012

 

Using statistical model and downscaling output of Global Circulation Model, the most probable seasonal precipitation has been predicted. All the land-sea-atmosphere indicators around the globe contributing to the South Asian Winter precipitation were incorporated.

 

Seasonal Outlook:

Total amount of precipitation during the winter season (January-March) is expected to remain 10-20% below normal.

 

Monthly Outlook

 

            January:

According to model predictions, precipitation in January is likely to remain below normal by about 25-30%. Mainly dry weather will continue over low elevation plains and 2-3 moderate spells of snowfall are predicted over the mountains.

 

            February:

A few good rains are expected in the second half of February which would neutralize the first drier half. In this way February is expected to receive normal amount of precipitation.

 

            March:

Due to increased convection, localized precipitation events will occur producing about 15-20% above normal precipitation during March.

 

            Seasonal Outlook is prepared at 80% confidence level.

 

 

 

-----sd-----

(ARIF MAHMOOD)

Director General, PMD

 




Date: January 12th , 2011

Outlook: Winter 2011

 

“La Niña phenomenon, causing abnormally low precipitation with low temperatures in Pakistan so far, is still prevailing and expected to continue well into the Northern Hemisphere during winter/spring 2011, as predicted by most of the global models.”

 

On the basis of prevailing atmospheric circulation and Global weather conditions, prior to winter period, an attempt is made to predict the probable amount of rainfall, which is likely to occur in Pakistan during the winter period (January to March, 2011). Such prediction aims to satisfy the statistical test for 80% success (i.e. to be correct four times out of five in the average).

 

On consideration of Global available data, there are 80% chances that the winter rainfall from January to March 2011, on all Pakistan bases will be below normal (-20%). The expected monthly precipitation outlook is;

 

-                     January expected to receive largely below normal precipitation.

-                     February may receive slightly below normal precipitation.

-                     March may receive nearly normal precipitation.

 

The normal rainfall (area-weighted) for the period January – March for Pakistan is 70.5 mm.

(NAEEM SHAH)

Director, CDPC

 


Dated December 1st, 2010

 WINTER RAINFALL IN PAKISTAN DURING THE PERIOD DECEMBER TO FEBRUARY 2010-11

 NORMAL WINTER RAINS PREDICTED

             On the basis of prevailing atmospheric circulation and Global weather conditions, prior to winter period, an attempt is made to predict the probable amount of rainfall, which is likely to occur in Pakistan during the winter period (December to February 2010-11). Such prediction aims to satisfy the statistical test for 80 % success (i.e. to be correct four times out of five in the average).

            On consideration of Global available data, there is 80% chance that winter rainfall from December to February 2010-11, on all Pakistan basis will be nearly normal. However, the northern parts of Pakistan may receive slightly above normal  (+ 10 %) precipitation due to one or two strong wet-spells during the month of January / February 2011.

            The normal rainfall (area weighted) for the period December to February for Pakistan is 51.99 mm.

  

------sd-------   

(NAEEM SHAH)

Director      

   
                 
   
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