Dated: July 09, 2018

Weather Outlook for Pakistan, July 2018

 

The global models indicate the large uncertainty about the evolution of El-Niño during the month of July 2018. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain in the neutral phase, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is expected to fluctuate in positive phase, during next two months. On the basis of these climatic forcings and statistical downscaling of GCM’s the salient features of weather for July 2018 is expected as follows:

·        Rainfall is expected to match the long term average to slightly more in northern half of Pakistan. Good rainfall spell are expected during the 2nd and 3rd decade of the month, which may cause urban flooding and flashfloods in some parts of the country.

·       Below normal rain is expected, in the lower half of the country, including Sindh and Balochistan.

      Note: The outlook is based upon recent data. Keeping in view the changing behaviour of different Meteorological parameters, the outlook will be updated on monthly basis i.e. by the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Dated: June 08, 2018

Outlook for Summer Monsoon (July – Sep) 2018

 

Keeping in view the global, regional and local meteorological indicators, the seasonal outlook for Pakistan summer monsoon 2018 has been prepared. It is evident from the model output that monsoon is expected to be more active during the first half than the second one. However, the most likely salient features are stated below:

·        In northern Pakistan, rainfall is expected to remain “normal to slightly above normal of long term average” during first half of the season, and below  normal during second half.

·       In southern Pakistan, rainfall is expected to remain “near normal of long term average” during first half of the season, and largely below normal during the second half.

·       The prevailing temperatures trend in Pakistan indicates high probability of few “Extreme rainfall events” in Punjab, and “GLOF events” in Gilgit-Baltistan/Chitral regions during monsoon season.

·        In the light of “Outlook of Summer Monsoon 2018” and already prevailing water shortage in the country, the water managers should take measures for water storages accordingly.

 

      Note: Due to prevailing uncertainties in climate system dynamics the monsoon seasonal forecast will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

 

Spokesperson


Dated: June 01, 2018

Weather Outlook for Pakistan, June 2018

 

El Nino one of the global climate indicator, is shifting from negative to neutral phase, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is persistent in the positive phase. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain neutral during the month of June 2018. On the basis of these climatic drivers, the salient features of weather for June 2018 is expected as follows;

First Half

·    Intense heat is likely to prevail in most parts of the country, during the first half of June. The temperature will remain 1-2°C above long term average in the plain areas of the country.

·      Mostly dry weather condition with chances of 1-2 isolated rainfall / thunderstorm events with dust storms are expected.

Second Half

·    During the second half of the month, weather is likely to remain wetter than long term average and 2 – 3 rainy spells are likely to occur in upper parts of the country including Northeast Punjab, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu & Kashmir, and Gilgit Baltistan.

·      Temperatures are likely to drop by 2-4 °C as compared to the first half.

Spokesperson

 


Dated: April 01, 2018

Weather Outlook for Pakistan : April-May 2018

 

The global climate driver, El Nino is proceeding from negative to neutral phase, while Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are swinging along its neutral values during the period, April to May 2018. Their impact on the weather pattern also seems not pronounced. The main features of weather for the period April - May, 2018 would be as follows:

·    Slightly below normal rainfall is expected throughout the country during April and May, however, the frequency and intensity of dust storms is likely to remain higher disturbing the harvesting and threshing activities

·      3-4 spells of western disturbances may across the upper parts of the country during April 2018

·        The average temperature is likely to remain above normal throughout the country during the period. The expected rise in temperature during the months of April and May is 1-2°C. The rise in temperature will accelerate the snowmelt in the Northern Areas and subsequent increase in runoff in upper Indus region

·     Heat wave conditions are most likely to affect the major cities occasionally, during the month of April to May 2018

·     During winter 2018, snowfall remained 20-25% less than long term average in upper Indus Basin and most of that occurred in February or early March. Due to rise in temperature, water inflow will increase in the Indus and Jhelum Rivers. However, the water reservoir would remain under stress conditions and relevant agencies are advised for the better management of expected water resources during the period

·     Deficient rainfall will intensify the drought conditions over south-west Balochistan and may transform into moderate, while the prevailing drought conditions over Thar-parker region of Sindh may exaggerate further, during the month of April –May 2018

Note: -
1.      The Provincial Agriculture authorities are requested to pass on weather forecast to farmers for making risk-free decisions for harvesting and threshing of Rabi crops as well as sowing of Kharif crops.
2.     The update of the weather forecast would be provided by the first of each month.

Spokesperson

 


Dated: March 01, 2018

March-2018 Weather Outlook for Pakistan

 

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and ENSO are likely to be in neutral phase, during March-April 2018 (Spring Season) and its effect on the weather pattern is not pronounced.

Outlook for the month of March, 2018 has been prepared, based upon regional and global weather conditions, incorporating the climate system anomalies. Following are the main features of weather expected in March, 2018

·    Upper parts of the country including upper Punjab, FATA, KPK, Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Kashmir are expected to receive slightly above normal precipitation with snowfall over the hilly areas of KPK, Gilgit Baltistan and Kashmir. Lower half of the country may receive below normal to normal rainfall during the month.

·      Three to four spells of short duration are expected over upper parts of the country to produce precipitation along with thunderstorm, gusty winds and high risk of hailstorm.

·        The average temperatures over the country are likely to be slightly above normal during the month.

·     Moderate drought like conditions over south-west Balochistan may be aggravated to severe and prevailing mild drought conditions over Thar-parker may transform into moderate, due to deficient rainfall.

·     March precipitation is not likely to improve the water stocks in major reservoirs considerably and stress conditions may continue.

Note: - The outlook for April will be issued during the first week of next month.

 

Spokesperson

 


Dated: February 01, 2018

February-2018 Weather Outlook for Pakistan

 

Global Climate Models show that the prevailing weak La-Nina conditions are likely to continue during the month and be in transition towards ENSO neutral during the spring season. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is in positive phase and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain neutral. These forcings play an important role in modification of regional weather pattern including Pakistan. Based upon these conditions weather outlook for February, 2018 is as follows;

·         Precipitation throughout the country is expected to be near Normal. However the hilly areas of KPK and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) may receive slightly above normal snowfall / rain fall during the month.

·         Three to four spells of rainfall are expected during February and amount of precipitation would be less during the first half as compared to second half.

·         Day and night time temperatures will gradually increase in February. The average temperatures over the country are likely to be above normal during the month.

·         Moderate drought like conditions may prevail over the southern half of the country due to deficient rainfall.

Note: - The outlook for March will be issued during the first week of next month.

 

Spokesperson

 


Dated: December 28, 2017

January-2018 Rainfall Outlook for Pakistan 

The prevailing global climate and weather conditions indicate that weak La Nina conditions are likely to persist into the first quarter of 2018 and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is expected to remain positive during the period.

Based on the prevailing global and regional meteorological conditions, the rainfall outlook is as follows;

·           Slightly below normal rainfall throughout the country is expected during the month.

·           The amount of snowfall over the hills in also expected to remain slightly below normal during January.

·           Two to three spells of rainfall with snowfall over the hills are expected in the country during the period.

·           Foggy conditions (during morning hours) are expected to prevail in the plains of Punjab and upper Sindh during the month.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Dated: December 07, 2017

 

Monthly Outlook for December 2017

 

Global climate indicators such as El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain neutral in December 2017 and these conditions are likely to prevail through winter season 2018.

On the basis of prevailing global atmospheric and ocean conditions, slightly above normal rainfall in the upper parts and normal rest of the country is predicted during December 2017.

  • 2–3 spells of rainfall are expected in different parts of the country with snowfall over the mountainous areas.

  • Shallow Foggy conditions may prevail in the plains of Punjab and KP and upper Sindh during the month.

  • Due to gradual fall in temperature, snow and glacier melt contribution to Indus will be minimal during the month. However, water availability will improve gradually due to 2–3 moderate rainfall spells in catchment areas.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month

Spokesperson

 


Dated: November 06, 2017

 

Monthly Outlook for November 2017

 

   The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)are in neutral phase. Westerlies are running on their normal track of mid-latitude.  

Outlook for the month of November, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional and global indicators incorporating the climate system dynamics. Rainfall is expected to remain less than normal during the month in the country. Following are the main features of weather outlook in November, 2017; 

      1   Less than normal rainfall is expected in most parts of Pakistan during the month.

2  One or two spells of light to moderate rainfall are expected in the northern half of the country.

3. Fog/Smog  with variable intensity is likely to prevail  in the plain areas of Punjab , KP and upper Sindh during November.

     4.  Mean daily temperatures are likely to remain normal  during the month. However, under Foggy conditions day temperatures will be below average  and    nights are expected slightly warmer.

      5. Due to less than normal expected precipitation, surface and ground water resources may experience further depletion. Due to gradual fall in temperature, snow and glacier melt contribution to Indus will be minimal during the month. Water management authorities and users are advised for the judicious use of water stocks to meet the requirements of the Rabi sowing. 

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson

 


 

Dated: October 10, 2017

Monthly Outlook for October 2017

 

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)are in neutral phase. Westerlies are running on their normal track of mid-latitude.  

Outlook for the month of October, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional and global indicators incorporating the climate system dynamics. Rainfall is expected to remain near normal during the month in South Asia including Pakistan. Following are the main features of weather outlook in October, 2017; 

1. Slightly below normal rainfall is predicted in most parts of Pakistan during the month.

2. Two to three spells of rainfall with light to moderate intensity are expected in different parts of the country.

3. Temperatures are likely to remain above normal due to relatively clear skies.

4. Water resource management authorities are advised for the judicious use of water stocks to meet the requirements of the Rabi sowing. 

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson

 


 

 

Dated: September 06, 2017

Monthly Outlook for September 2017

ENSO and IOD neutral are prevailing in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively. Neutral phase of IOD phenomenon is expected to prevail in the monsoon season, however, ENSO is expected to remain in negative phase during coming autumn/early winter season.

Outlook for the month of September, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics. Monsoon is expected to remain in weaker phase during the month in South Asia including Pakistan. Following are the main features of weather in September, 2017:

  1. Near normal rainfall is expected in the country during the month.

  2. Three to four spells of rainfall embedded with isolated extreme events are expected in upper Punjab, KP, AJK and GB. While one to two spells of light to moderate intensity are predicted in Sindh and Balochistan provinces. These extreme events may generate floods.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Dated: August 01, 2017

Monthly Outlook for August 2017

ENSO and IOD neutral are prevailing in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively. Neutral phase of both phenomena is expected to prevail in the monsoon season.

 

Outlook for the month of August, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics. Monsoon is going to enter in weaker phase after mid-August in South Asia including Pakistan. Following are the main features of weather in August, 2017:

 

1. Near normal rainfall in northern half and below normal in southern half of the country is expected during the month.

2. Three to four spells of rainfall embedded with isolated extreme events are expected in upper Punjab, KP, AJK and GB. While one to two spells of light to moderate intensity are predicted in Sindh and Balochistan provinces.

 
Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


 

Dated: July 06, 2017

Monthly Outlook for July 2017

ENSO and IOD neutral are prevailing in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively. Neutral phase of both phenomena will continue to prevail in the monsoon season. These forcing play an important role in modification of the seasonal weather in the region.

Outlook for the month of July, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics. Following are the main features of weather in July, 2017:

  • Near normal rainfall is expected during the month of July, 2017.

  • Three to four spells of monsoon rainfall with thunderstorm and isolated heavy falls are predicted in Punjab, KP, AJK and GB, while, two spells are expected in southern parts ( Southeast Sindh and Eastern Balochistan) of the county during the current month.

  • Due to warming and excess moisture, weather in plain areas of the country is likely to remain humid/sultry.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

 

Spokesperson


Dated: June 14, 2017

 

Outlook for Summer Monsoon (JAS) 2017

   Large uncertainties prevail in the evolution of ENSO and IOD, however, most of the models are in consensus of neutral phase of phenomena during the season. Consequent upon prevailing ocean and atmospheric conditions, summer monsoon rainfall is expected to be normal in the first half and below normal in the second half of the season, in Pakistan. Based on statistical and dynamical downscaling of global circulation models, salient features of outlook for the season (July to September) 2017 are as under;

·             Area weighted rainfall during monsoon season over Pakistan is expected to fall short of long term average. However, rainfall will be highly variable over temporal and spatial scale.

·         During July, monsoon rainfall may range in normal limits but less than normal rainfall is likely in August and September.

·            Less frequent rains in southern half of the country may trigger drought like conditions.

·           There is a high probability of localized rain spells which may generate flash flooding in mountainous and sub-mountainous regions.

·           Due to erratic behavior of summer monsoon, extreme precipitation events may occur at isolated places in the country, which can result into floods.

·             Localized events of rainfall coupled with rapid melting in the glaciated regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral may trigger GLOF events. 

Note: The outlook is based upon recent data. Keeping in view the changing behavior of different Meteorological parameters, the outlook will be updated on monthly basis i.e. at the first week of each month.

 

                                                                                                                                                                --Sd--

                                                                                                                                                                 Spokesperson


Dated: June 08, 2017

 

Monthly Outlook for June 2017

Large uncertainty prevails in the global models about evolution of El Niño during monsoon season 2017. Positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to dominate throughout the summer season. These forcing play an important role in modification of the seasonal weather in the region.

Outlook for the month of June 2017, has been prepared based upon regional and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics. Following are the highlights of weather in June 2017:

  • Northern half of the country is expected to receive more precipitation than the southern half of the country.

  • Three-four spells of thunderstorm-rain and isolated hailstorms associated with windstorm are predicted in Upper Punjab, AJK, KP and adjoining areas of Gilgit-Baltistan. Hot and dry conditions, with chances of dust/thunderstorms, will prevail in the southern half of the country.

  • Due to intense heating, temperatures in the southern half of the country are likely to remain slightly above normal.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Dated: May 04, 2017

 

Monthly Outlook for May 2017

El Niño, one of the global climate drivers, is developing and it is predicted to be in peak phase in the autumn 2017, while Indian Ocean Dipole is forecasted to swing within normal limits throughout the summer season. These forcings play important role in modification of the seasonal weather in the region.

Outlook for the months of May 2017, has been prepared based upon regional and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics. Following are the highlights of weather in the season;

  • Northern half of the country is expected to receive slightly above normal precipitation. 3–4 spells of thunderstorm-rain and isolated hailstorms associated with windstorm are predicted in Upper Punjab, AJK, KP and adjoining areas of Gilgit-Baltistan. Hot and dry conditions, with chances of dust/thunderstorms, will prevail in the southern half of the country.
  • Temperatures in the southern half of the country are likely to remain slightly above normal.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month

Spokesperson


Dated: April 03, 2017

Outlook for the month of April 2017 

Global Climate Indicators such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain neutral in April 2017, however, the El Nino & Southern Oscillations (ENSO) is in developing phase. Based on prevailing atmospheric conditions climate outlook of different models suggest that;

  • Three to four weather systems are likely to pass across the country, resulting in Normal to slightly above normal rainfall over upper KP, GB, AJK, adjoining Northern parts of Punjab, and hot & Dry weather is expected in rest of the country.

  • Thunder/hailstorms accompanied with gusty winds are also likely to occur at isolated places in the country.

  • Air temperature is expected to remain 1 - 2oC above normal in April 2017.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson


Dated: March 01, 2017

Outlook for the month of March 2017

 

Global climate indicators such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), El Nino & Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain neutral in March 2017. Based on prevailing atmospheric conditions climate outlook of different models suggest that;

·        Three to four weather systems are likely to pass across the country, resulting in slightly above normal rainfall over upper KP, GB, AJK, Northern parts of Punjab and normal rainfall in rest of the country.

·        Snowfall is also expected over high mountains in March 2017.

·        Thunder/hailstorms accompanied with gusty winds are also likely to occur at isolated places in the country.

·        Air temperature is expected to remain slightly above normal in March 2017.

·        Initial estimates indicate that precipitation is likely to remain normal in the month of April.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

 

Spokesperson


 

Dated: February 3, 2017

Outlook for the month of February 2017

Global climate indicators such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), El Nino & Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain neutral in February 2017. The conditions are in favour of more than normal February precipitation. Climate outlook of different models suggest that;

  • §    Two to three weather systems are likely to pass across the country, resulting in slightly above normal rain/snowfall in February 2017.

    §    In February, more than normal snowfall is expected in mountainous areas of Upper KP, GB and Kashmir.

    §    Fog intensity is likely to reduce gradually in plain areas of KP, Punjab and upper Sindh.

    §    Precipitation is likely to remain normal in the month of March. However, rainfall will be more than snowfall.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

 

 

Spokesman


 

Dated: January 4, 2017

Outlook for the month of January 2017

Near normal rain and snowfall predicted during January 2017

Neutral ENSO and IOD conditions are prevailing in Pacific and Indian Oceans, respectively. Global climatic conditions and output of different forecasting models suggest that;

  • Two to three weather systems are likely to pass across the upper parts of Pakistan resulting in near normal rain/snowfall in January 2017.

  • Fog with variable intensity is likely to prevail in Punjab, Sindh and plain areas of KP during January.

  • Situation may further improve as normal rainfall and slightly above normal snowfall is expected during the month of February.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent data. Keeping in view, the changing dynamics of the climate system, the outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

 

Spokesman


     

   
                 
   
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